The UNESCO Energy Bulletin has published a longer and more articulated version of the World Bank Development Outreach article on emissions and economic development
Carlo Carraro and Emanuele Massetti. 2011. "Technical Innovation, Economic Development and Implications for Energy Use and Emissions." UNESCO Energy Bulletin, 2(11).
"In
order to achieve the target of a 50% reduction of GHGs emissions by
2050 set forth during the G8 Summit in L’Aquila, Italy, in 2009, CO2
emissions per capita need to be lower than 1.14 tons in 2050, using 1990
as the benchmark year and assuming that an equivalent effort is
undertaken to reduce emissions of all other GHGs. If we consider that in
2005 CO2 emissions per capita were about 4.5 tons and we expect a
median future level in 2050 equal to 6 tons of CO2 per capita, we can
easily conclude that we are definitely off-track. The historic pattern
that links emissions to economic development needs to be reversed."
"Some
solutions are already available and a well-crafted climate policy can
stimulate their adoption. However, there are limited options available
today to invert drastically the relationship between economic growth and emissions."