November 23, 2012

The impact of climate change on European Agriculture

A recent paper on the impact of climate change on EU agriculture just came out as FEEM WP.

We use for the first time the Ricardian method at a continental EU scale. Things get bad for Mediterranean countries

Steven Van Passel, Emanuele Massetti, Robert Mendelsohn. 2012. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture." FEEM Note di Lavoro 2012.083, November 2012.


This research estimates the impact of climate on European agriculture using a continental scale Ricardian analysis. Data on climate, soil, geography and regional socio-economic characteristics were matched for 37 612 individual farms across the EU-15. Farmland values across Europe are sensitive to climate. Even with the adaptation captured by the Ricardian technique, farms in Southern Europe are predicted to suffer sizeable losses (8% -13% per degree Celsius) from warming. In contrast, agriculture in the rest of Europe is likely to see only mixed impacts. Increases (decreases) in rain will increase (decrease) average farm values by 3% per centiliter of precipitation. Aggregate impacts by 2100 vary depending on the climate model scenario from a loss of 8% in a mild scenario to a loss of 44% in a harsh scenario.