October 08, 2013

A new presentation of "Chaos-in, Chaos-out" at the SISC conference in Lecce

On September 23 I gave a presentation of my paper "Chaos in, chaos out? The effect of chaos in GCM scenarios on estimates of climate change impacts" at the First SISC conference in Lecce.

The presentation is available here in pdf format.

I am making progress towards a final draft. This presentation has new estimates of climate change impacts, with regional detail and bootstrap confidence intervals. It clearly shows that the impact of noise in the climate change scenarios is statistically significant for many General Circulation Models.

A final draft will be ready soon.

Here I copy a figure that compares 2011-2030 temperature anomaly (w.r.t. 1961-1990) differences between the A2 and the A1B SRES scenarios at global level. Dark blue means that the area is much colder in the A2 scenario, and viceversa if the area is red. This figure shows how almost identical emission trajectories can lead to very different climate change scenarios at local level.

(as I am taking differences, degrees celsius and degrees kelvin are identical)