Accepted for publication on the November 2019 Issue of Climate Change Economics (updated on June 6, 2019)
Abstract: This paper analyses whether migration is an adaptation
strategy that households employ to cope with climate in Nigeria. We estimate
our model using cross-section variation in climate and long-term migration
decisions because we are interested in the average response to long-term
climatic conditions. For households that operate farms, we find that the
relationship between climate and migration is non-linear. In particular,
climates with closer to ideal farming conditions are associated with a higher
propensity to migrate, whereas in the least favorable climatic conditions, the
propensity to migrate declines. The marginal effect of rainfall and temperature
changes on migration varies by season. We estimate the impact of climate change
on the number of migrant households in 2031-2060 and 2071-2100, ceteris paribus. With current population
levels, climate change generates between 3.6 and 6.3 million additional
migrants, most of them internal. However, these estimates are not statistically
significant.
