Georgia Tech in Venice

Our great Summer Study Abroad Program on Sustainable Development and Climate Change in Venice has started!

We have already met with climatologists at CMCC in Bologna, visited the MOSE project to protect Venice from the high waters, practice glass making skills in Murano with an exclusive visit to the Seguso glass factory, and explored Venice to understand why it had a great past and how it failed over the centuries.

For some pictures, follow us on Instagram https://www.instagram.com/gtveniceprogram/.

Does harmful climate increase or decrease migration? Evidence from Rural Households in Nigeria

Totally new draft and new title for paper on migration and climate in Nigeria.

Accepted for publication on the November 2019 Issue of Climate Change Economics (updated on June 6, 2019)

Abstract: This paper analyses whether migration is an adaptation strategy that households employ to cope with climate in Nigeria. We estimate our model using cross-section variation in climate and long-term migration decisions because we are interested in the average response to long-term climatic conditions. For households that operate farms, we find that the relationship between climate and migration is non-linear. In particular, climates with closer to ideal farming conditions are associated with a higher propensity to migrate, whereas in the least favorable climatic conditions, the propensity to migrate declines. The marginal effect of rainfall and temperature changes on migration varies by season. We estimate the impact of climate change on the number of migrant households in 2031-2060 and 2071-2100, ceteris paribus. With current population levels, climate change generates between 3.6 and 6.3 million additional migrants, most of them internal. However, these estimates are not statistically significant.

The Effect of Extreme Temperatures and Adaptation across Eastern American Farms

Massetti, E., and R. Mendelsohn. 2019. “The Effect of Extreme Temperatures and Adaptation across Eastern American Farms” Revise and Resubmit.

Abstract. Previous Ricardian models of climate change impacts on agriculture have been criticized because they rely on mean temperatures and do not explicitly include extreme temperatures. This paper compares results using the entire distribution of daily temperature versus just the mean seasonal or growing season temperature in a Ricardian model. Including all temperatures does not increase measured long run damage. The warmest and coldest temperatures cause only modest harm to farmland values suggesting farmers have adapted to these extremes. The paper shows a few examples of these adaptations by farmers.

The IPCC Investment Numbers Are Correct

A comment to a paper published by Energy Policy arguing that investment data reviewed by Chapter 16 of the IPCC Working Group III Fifth Assessment Report - which I co-authored - was totally flawed.



Abstract: Trainer (2017) criticizes cost estimates of climate change mitigation presented in the Working Group III Report to the IPCC and is concerned by lack of transparency and dubious practices in summarizing the literature. This commentary shows that this critique is based on several mistakes. Trainer (2017) mixes evidence on investment changes and evidence on macroeconomic costs, which are discussed in two different parts of the report because they are different indicators of the economic impact of climate mitigation policy. This commentary also argues that when the report was prepared evidence on investments in mitigation technologies was limited but methodologically sound and transparently reported, contrary to what suggested in Trainer (2017).

Massetti, E., C. Carraro, S. Gupta, J. Harnish and R.J. Kopp. 2017. “Investments in and Macroeconomic Costs of Climate Mitigation in the Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC.” Energy Policy, 109: 414–417.

Impacts of Climate Change on Italian Agriculture

Paper on climate change impact on Italian farms is forthcoming in the European Review of Agricultural Economics.


Abstract: This research investigates the potential impact of warming on Italian agriculture. Using a detailed dataset of 16,000 farms across Italy, the study examines likely warming impacts in different regions and for different sectors of Italian agriculture. The study finds that farm net revenues are very sensitive to seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation. Livestock and crop farms have different responses to climate as do rainfed farms and irrigated crop farms. The overall results suggest mild consequences from marginal changes in climate but increasingly harmful effects from more severe climate scenarios.

Bozzola, M., E. Massetti, R. Mendelsohn and F. Capitanio. 2017. “A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Italian Agriculture.” European Review of Agricultural Economics, forthcoming.

Paper on degree days forthcoming in Energy Economics

How Well Do Degree Days over the Growing Season Capture the Effect of Climate on Farmland Values?

Emanuele Massetti, Robert Mendelsohn, Shun Chonabayashi

Abstract

Farmland values have traditionally been valued using seasonal temperature and precipitation but degree days over the growing season offers a more compact form. We find that degree days and daily temperature are interchangeable over the growing season. However, the impact of degree days in spring and summer are quite different. Climate effects outside the growing season are also significant. Cross sectional evidence suggests seasonal temperature and precipitation are very important whereas temperature extremes have relatively small effects.

How do heat waves, cold waves, droughts, hail and tornadoes affect US agriculture?

A very first draft of a new paper on climate extremes available here. Still preliminary and incomplete.

Presented today at the ASSA meetings in San Francisco. Presentation available here.

Abstract:

We estimate the impact of extreme events on corn and soybeans yields, and on agricultural land values in the Eastern United States. We find the most harmful event is a severe drought but that cold waves, heat waves, and storms all reduce both corn and soybean yields. Over 80% of the damage from extreme events is caused by droughts and cold waves with heat waves causing only 6% of the damage. Including extreme events in a panel model of weather alters how temperature affects yields, making cold temperature more harmful and hot temperatures less harmful. Extreme events have no effect on farmland values probably because American farmers are buffered from extreme events by subsidized public crop insurance.

How Well Do Degree Days over the Growing Season Capture the Effect of Climate on Farmland Values?

Totally new draft of paper on degree days:

This paper presents an analytical framework to study the economics of adaptation to climate change, reviews the alternative methodologies that have been used to measure adaptation, and briefly summarizes the empirical results. The paper concludes with some general guidance for policy makers on climate adaptation and with some observations of promising areas for additional research.

Massetti, E., R. Mendelsohn and S. Chonabayashi. 2015. "How Well Do Degree Days over the Growing Season Capture the Effect of Climate on Farmland Values?"

New draft: "Migration and Climate Change in Rural Africa"

Climate change is expected to severely affect people’s livelihoods through, among others, rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. Here we show that average temperature and precipitations significantly affect migration decisions of farm households in Ghana and Nigeria. We find that farmers that live in the least favorable climates for agriculture have the lowest propensity to migrate among all farm households. As climatic conditions worsen, farm households are likely to migrate less. Our result are consistent with the widely accepted conclusions of two large bodies of literature which have been only marginally connected before. Many migration studies suggest that lower incomes and lower assets reduce migration rates in developing countries. There is also general agreement that climate change will reduce agricultural productivity in low-latitude developing countries. Taken together, these two streams of literature, lead to assume that climate change, especially in areas that will become less hospitable but not uninhabitable, could reduce migration rates. In the literature this is known as the environmental-capital hypothesis, whereby increased productivity due to better conditions provides the capital to finance costly migration, while a worsening in the climate could be associated with lower chances of migration.


Cattaneo, C. and E. Massetti. 2015. “Climate and Migration in Rural Ghana and Nigeria.”

The economics of adaptation to climate change

This paper presents an analytical framework to study the economics of adaptation to climate change, reviews the alternative methodologies that have been used to measure adaptation, and briefly summarizes the empirical results. The paper concludes with some general guidance for policy makers on climate adaptation and with some observations of promising areas for additional research.


Massetti, E. and R. Mendelsohn. 2015. "The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change"